Industrial production – growth declines in instalments
15 January 2023
Industrial production increased by 4.6 per cent year-on-year in November. Compared to the previous month, growth was 2.9 per cent, according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS). Although the positive result was well above market forecasts, the majority of analysts do not see this as a reason for an optimistic outlook. In their view, the growth was fed by an anomaly in electricity production. Thus, the production and supply of electricity and gas increased by 23.5 per cent year-on-year.
Analysts at mBank point out that after adjusting for seasonal factors, manufacturing output is already in slightly negative territory. The economic slowdown is gradual, and the lowest point has not yet been reached. Overall, the statistics authority reports a decline in production in 14 of 34 industrial sectors. As in previous months, the production of chemical products is one of the sectors with the highest decline. In the case of industrial prices, the statisticians recorded a slight decline for the first time in two years. Industrial prices rose by 20.8 per cent year-on-year in November. In the previous month, it was still 23.1 per cent. According to the GUS, the current monthly comparison shows a slight decline of 0.5 per cent. For the Polish Institute of Economics (PIE), however, the decline is only the effect of falling prices for oil and natural gas on the world markets. For the consumer, this does not result in any relief. On the contrary, according to economic forecasts, prices for basic foodstuffs are expected to rise by another 20 to 30 per cent in the first months of the new year.
Source: Wirtschafts-Markt Polen (01-2023 Issue 322)
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