IMF forecast – Poland to overtake Japan, Spain and Israel in GDP per capita by 2030

According to the latest forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), by 2030 Poland will surpass four developed countries in terms of GDP per capita (PPP): Israel, Spain, New Zealand, and Japan. In the 1990s, Poland was among the poorest countries in Europe. Today, thanks to stable growth and consistent modernisation, it is approaching the level of Western European economies.

In 2024, Poland’s GDP per capita (in purchasing power parity, based on constant 2021 prices) stood at 45.7 thousand international dollars. By 2030, it is projected to reach 55.2 thousand dollars – a growth of 20.7% in just six years. This is one of the highest growth rates among developed economies – only Qatar and Guyana, whose growth is driven by oil exports, are expected to grow faster.

From transformation to one of the EU’s growth leaders

Poland’s economic growth over recent decades has been unprecedented. Between 1995 and 2024, GDP per capita increased by 316.2%, making Poland one of the fastest-growing economies in the European Union. By comparison, over the same period, growth in the Czech Republic was 178%, in Hungary 214%, and in Italy only 117%.

Back in 1995, Poland’s income per capita was nearly three times lower than that of France, and more than twice as low as in the Czech Republic. Today, these differences have nearly disappeared. In 2030, the Czech Republic is projected to reach a GDP per capita level of 56.9 thousand dollars, with Poland close behind at 55.2 thousand. This means Poland could surpass its southern neighbour in the 2030s.

Poland’s changing position in the global economic landscape

By the end of the decade, Poland will overtake not only smaller economies, but also some of the world’s well-known, stable markets:

• Israel, a dynamic, tech-driven economy;
• Spain, a key player in the eurozone;
• New Zealand, with a high standard of living;
• Japan, a longstanding model of economic development.

Poland will also close the gap on countries such as the United Kingdom (57 thousand), Italy (56.4 thousand), France (58.8 thousand), and Canada (59.6 thousand). The gap with Germany (65.4 thousand) and South Korea (61.7 thousand) will also narrow steadily. For investors, this means Poland is becoming one of the most important developed markets in Central Europe.

These figures leave no doubt – Poland is no longer merely a “catching-up” economy but is entering the group of developed countries with sustained growth. If current trends continue, it will soon rank among the top countries in the region in terms of GDP per capita. For both domestic and foreign investors, this indicates not only rising purchasing power of Polish consumers but, above all, the predictability and resilience of the economy.

If you have any further questions or require additional information, please contact your business relationship person or use the enquiry form on the HLB Poland website.

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